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thecontrariancorner.com | Analysis and commentary on futures markets and global trends thecontrariancorner.com Analysis and commentary on futures markets and global trends Menu Skip to content Home Technical Trading Page Daily Metrics & Price Signals Day Trading Signals 101 Hooper Quant Model Hooper Futures & Spot Currencies Hooper Futures Weekly Model Hooper Equities & ETFs Hooper Weekly Equity Model Hooper Quant Model: DAX Media Disclosures contrariancorner.com Subscribe FAQ Monday Patterns Leave a reply We used to watch for linear days on Employment data. Another tid bit was 2 months revisions that go in same direction of the data print. The following Monday (i.e. today) would present an "inside up" (or inside down if a linear up day) and some position reduction. This would set up a Tuesday failure and new low (high). If the market continued the pattern creating an outside new range - like today - the move was more likely to be exhausted. Both Treasury Notes and Spoos are exhibiting the latter pattern characteristics today. Share this: Email Twitter LinkedIn Google Print Tumblr Facebook This entry was posted in Blog on August 8, 2016 by Kevin. Friday Stuff 1 Reply Things no one cares about except @Conorsen and me. Treasury Bill rates look like this: 3m -.26. 6mo - .41. 1 year - .51 and 2 years at .76. The 5 year is around 1.10 and the 10 year is 1.53. 1o year rates should be an extrapolation of 1 year rates into the future with various adjustments for coupons, day counts, forwards, futures and convexity. 3 month LIBOR set at .77 sending an old metric known as the TED spread out again. The 12 month rate (the rate we watch that fits nicely far enough away from the FF gravitational pull and fills the gap until the 2 yr note) hit a new high of 1.47%. The 3 month set was 66 a month ago, when pundits began to count days and shrug off regulatory changes, and a paltry 30 one year ago today. Rates are falling I am told by the WSJ and the TV. By next week, it is quite probable that 12 month "money" will be within a gnat's whisker of the 10 year government note rate. Ponder for a second the chasm between dollar interbank and many DM negative yielding "tax contracts." One has to wonder, how can the price of money be so high and debt yield so low? Considering that quantitative monetary policy is used to make the distinction between money and debt evaporate, what has gone wrong? More importantly, why are Conor and I the only 2 people who seem to care? Share this: Email Twitter LinkedIn Google Print Tumblr Facebook This entry was posted in Blog on August 5, 2016 by Kevin. Who’s Doing It ? Leave a reply WSJ Section C1, yesterday, upper right corner. Under the heading "Trading Places" a chart of the 6 year bear market in FI trading at GS, MS, C, BofA and JPM. Goldman and Citi vaporized the largest shares of FI trading with MS making a bold 2011 attempt to ramp up that was quickly aborted. Interestingly, the gist of the article was on increased scrutiny by the SEC to disclose more about their trading ops and revenues. "Hey, we realize you don't do this anymore, so could you now shed some light on it ?!" The real question is, if these heavily regulated institutions are no longer in the business, who exactly is ? The market for FI is bigger than ever. Anything with a yield north of 1 is considered attractive by default. (see what I did there?) The truth is for all the whining about equity "dark pools", FI trading - from Uncle Sam's stuff to the sketchiest junk - is performed by a cabal of private low profile operators. Central Bank quantitative measures provide pedestrian cover to the activities. Ask John Q. who buys FI and he'll quickly tell you, "The Fed." Witness the evaporation in JGBs of late and the regulatory reduction in Big 5 FI trading feels a little more scary. When bond prices fall, it seems no one is still "in the business." Share this: Email Twitter LinkedIn Google Print Tumblr Facebook This entry was posted in Blog on August 4, 2016 by Kevin. Today’s Moment of Yen-I Mean Zen Leave a reply Back when The Daily Show was funny and relevant, John Stewart used to end with "A moment of Zen" to capture the day's absurdity. Today's moment comes courtesy of Section C page 3 of the WSJ. Top headline: Yen Traders Fret Over Japan's Stimulus... Below: Tokyo takes long View:50 Year Debt..and to the side: Longer Bonds Hold Risks for Investors. The Cliff's Notes version - Everyone has borrowed yen to buy long term bonds that don't yield very much but everyone wants them for capital gains in strange ETFs, so 50 year bonds sound great except the market is getting clobbered this month, wiping out years of returns and causing said massive positions to be unwound. But governments buy most of them anyway, which may or may not be inflationary depending on whether you are talking to Rick Santelli or the CEO of Whole Foods. Got It? And I wondered why neither of our would-be Presidents have commented on monetary policy. My disinterest in government FI over the last 3 years has been well chronicled in this Blog. "Anything, and everything else" has been my advice. Hoarding low coupon debt for price increases is the Yang to the early 80's "certificates of confiscation" Ying . Yesterday, the Fed meeting results were released to the usual micro-parsing and insignificance. The Fed, I am now told by the parade of "watchers", "strategists" and "traders" is now Data Dependent. Zen moment redux. The term structure of interest rates (Some guy, I heard he was awesome, used to speak of it on TV) is fercocked. The Journey back to Ixtlan (#GIK) will be a wild and transformative process far beyond the grasp of our soon to be Commander in Chief. It is ALWAYS about the positions. Those positions are starting to change. Share this: Email Twitter LinkedIn Google Print Tumblr Facebook This entry was posted in Blog on July 28, 2016 by Kevin. On Money Leave a reply Today, as @Conorsen tweeted out, the "benchmark" LIBOR hit a new cycle high with the 12 month rate (#GIK) offered at 1.37%. (Long time delusional readers know this means we put the equilibrium FF rate at .77, thus CB policy has been quite accommodative of late) The 10 year government bond is yielding 1.57 but was at 1.37% as recently as July 5 ! Any casual observer of Dodd-Frank and its morphings understands the regulatory aspect of wider interbank sets. Many of us began to estimate where the "Financial System 2.0" spreads should be as long as 7 years ago. The WSJ has several articles highlighting the interest "savings" of low (Negative - hello Spanish 2 year auction) rates on borrowing governments. At the height of the "Debt Crisis" debate and populist fear mongering, we argued that just changing the trend and letting the economy grow was more than adequate policy. Even marginal growth rates have delivered adjustments large enough to bring more pundits to our "Issue more for longer" camp. The critical distinction is the difference between money and debt, even as quantitative policies seek to blur and merge (blurge?) the two. The dollar's waxing and waning becomes a Dramamine ingesting barometer for clues to what lies down the road. Currencies, especially global fiat currencies, are poor compasses to steer policy by, however. Which takes us back to interbank benchmarks. In a world of Central Banks exotically bolstering government borrowings with Flying Buttress purchases, the risk-free rate becomes irrelevant. "Things" other than risk-free are better reflections of financial system vitals. Here's the message, their yields are going UP. Share this: Email Twitter LinkedIn Google Print Tumblr Facebook This entry was posted in Blog on July 25, 2016 by Kevin. Corn Sweat Leave a reply Corn has lost a dollar in value recently and the entire grain complex completed down patterns in the model again Friday. Farmers are hoping the high temps over the next week produce some kind of price pop. No one we have spoke to since arriving in the mid-west feels loftier pricing can be sustained for long, however. So much product has been planted in the age of abundance that a new weather condition has developed in the Plains called Corn Sweat. High heat and fence post to fence post "Frankencorn" combine to sweat so much moisture into the air as to send humidity readings and the heat index soaring. Watch for this phenomenon this week. We have felt that income bumps and basic service price increases would combine to nudge inflation readings up enough to expose the folly of low (negative) FI renting for capital gains. Public transportation, road tolls, rents and Starbucks are all costing more. The incoming weather pattern should provide some flopping around in grains but the crop as a whole remains enormous. Share this: Email Twitter LinkedIn Google Print Tumblr Facebook This entry was posted in Blog on July 18, 2016 by Kevin. The Other Exit Leave a reply Star Wars creator, and Chicago political player Melody Hobson's husband, George Lucas exited Chicago and returned to the Left Coast on Friday. The "Friends of the Parks" group, which has done some good protecting Burnham's vision, had tied Lucas up in the courts over a parking lot. The billions of dollars lost in this populist battle could have fixed the air-port flaw in the Death Star and returned the Big Onion to the world stage. Chicago, as is its host State, is in a monetary crisis. That a Lucas-sized construction and tourist project could be lost faster than the Millennium Falcon can do the Kessel Run is astounding. That the job couldn't articulate its way through the Machine is testimony to Rahm's inabilities. Daley would have "got her done." So, take a spin southbound on LSD and enjoy the view of crumbling asphalt and wasted space, hum the Star Wars theme and imagine what might have been...a long time ago in a city far far away. Share this: Email Twitter LinkedIn Google Print Tumblr Facebook This entry was posted in Blog on June 25, 2016 by Kevin. 55 Leave a reply The SP Future has declined 55 handles from our June 6 post "Enter Sandman." Yesterday, 100s of thousands of new position calls were bought in the Sep Gyro contract and the Fed did nothing. The market, now more than ever, tells us nothing about the future, even the near future. The amazing constant of the media coverage of the capital markets is the promulgation of the foresight myth. All this activity, technology and money has to tell us something, right? Wrong. And you can hear the stretched reasoning getting louder this morning. I can say without hesitation that I have no idea what those 55 handles mean to the economy, let alone the world. Instead, I would suggest you read the June 1 edition of Fortune on the rise of private companies. The top private companies involve riding in other people's cars and sleeping on other people's couches. They don't need public capital because they don't produce any goods or own many hard assets. What could the daily sloshing around of public shares possibly tell you about that? Share this: Email Twitter LinkedIn Google Print Tumblr Facebook This entry was posted in Blog on June 16, 2016 by Kevin. 3x Leave a reply Yesterday, the Economics and Finance crowd from the San Francisco area gathered for a day conference. Amid the rosy outlooks and bullish unicorn tech scenarios, one talk really resonated. A slightly frumpled B of A economist presented a matrix of income to housing that swung from healthy to unsafe. The Bay area housing market clocked in at a ground shaking 3 times the "unsafe" marker. Our prediction is shortly after the new President is sworn in, the market topic will be "How much impact will the West Coast housing crisis have on the Heartland?" Remember 1990 my millenial friend? Oh wait, sorry. Share this: Email Twitter LinkedIn Google Print Tumblr Facebook This entry was posted in Blog on June 10, 2016 by Kevin. Deep Thoughts Leave a reply This post is from @interestarb . You should read it. I don't ask many peeps for their opinion about things, but I definitely ask him ! What the U.S. Federal Reserve may fear most at this point in time Prior to the May Employment report, many economists, financial market participants, and other economic/market watchers (aka financial market journalists) considered the idea of a July rate hike in the U.S. as ill fated or simply unwarranted. One small 25bp move geared toward normalcy, that for some had already been delayed, has little chance by itself to upset the current U.S. apple cart in terms of domestic consumption and business. However, years of Zero Interest Rate Policy (“ZIRP”) have fostered a highly leveraged fast paced trading (not investing) community ravenously pursuing profits that could start the ball rolling. With a sometimes dangerous heard mentality, and get me out first mindset that can easily overwhelm and trample the true mechanics of market place price discovery. This and the memory of the “Taper Tantrum” is what the Federal Reserve may now fear most, the markets ability to overreact and create havoc. It’s not about the actual underlying U.S. economy operating on its own merit, but how it may be impacted by possible financial market upheaval overly sensitive to the winds of monetary policy. At the same time, the Fed’s forward thinking must also incorporate the interconnectedness of many global factors that could spillover with the potential to have domino like effects. The Federal Reserve seems destine to continue the waiting game, to live in a world where it needs all the planets to be in a line to ever so slightly alter it’s current policy stance. Unlikely “to boldly go where no man has gone before”, the question now is how much longer will the Fed be content to err on the side of over accommodation and live in fear of its own shadow. Some Members have hinted at above target inflation acceptance, but with a 4.7% UER they would clearly be behind if that were to occur. Again, there are participants who may find that acceptable after years below target. Things may be about to get a tad more interesting. Share this: Email Twitter LinkedIn Google Print Tumblr Facebook This entry was posted in Blog on June 6, 2016 by Kevin. Post navigation ← Older posts Login Username or Email: Password: signup now | forgot password? Remember Me Search Site Search for: thecontrariancorner.com Monday Patterns Friday Stuff Who’s Doing It ? 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